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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

Five rules for evidence communication
M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2020)
587,
362
Making prognostic algorithms useful in shared decision-making: Patients and clinicians’ requirements for the Predict:Breast Cancer interface
GD Farmer, GM Pearson, WJ Skylark, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
(2020)
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study.
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– The BMJ
(2020)
371,
m3731
Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
ALJ Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, CR Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, DJ Spiegelhalter
(2020)
2020.10.05.20206961
Use of "normal" risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19.
D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
370,
m3259
Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk.
GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– The BMJ
(2020)
369,
m2063
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.
AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
(2020)
117,
7672
Should We Trust Algorithms?
D Spiegelhalter
– Harvard data science review
(2020)
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
AM van der Bles, SVD Linden, A Freeman, D Spiegelhalter
(2020)
No more damned lies ...
D Spiegelhalter
– NEW SCIENTIST
(2020)
245,
48
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Research Groups

Centre for Mathematical Imaging in Healthcare
DPMMS retired
Statistical Laboratory