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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

The adverse effects of bisphosphonates in breast cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.
C Jackson, ALJ Freeman, Z Szlamka, DJ Spiegelhalter
– PLoS One
(2021)
16,
e0246441
Making prognostic algorithms useful in shared decision-making: Patients and clinicians’ requirements for the Predict:Breast Cancer interface
GD Farmer, GM Pearson, WJ Skylark, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
(2020)
Five rules for evidence communication
M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2020)
587,
362
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– The BMJ
(2020)
371,
m3731
Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
ALJ Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, CR Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, DJ Spiegelhalter
(2020)
2020.10.05.20206961
Use of "normal" risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19.
D Spiegelhalter
– The BMJ
(2020)
370,
m3259
No more damned lies ...
D Spiegelhalter
– NEW SCIENTIST
(2020)
245,
48
Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk.
GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
369,
m2063
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
(2020)
117,
7672
Should We Trust Algorithms?
D Spiegelhalter
– Harvard data science review
(2020)
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Research Groups

Centre for Mathematical Imaging in Healthcare
DPMMS retired
Statistical Laboratory