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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

Five rules for evidence communication
M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2020)
587,
362
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study.
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– The BMJ
(2020)
371,
m3731
Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
A Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, C Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, D Spiegelhalter
(2020)
Use of "normal" risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19.
D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
370,
m3259
No more damned lies ...
D Spiegelhalter
– NEW SCIENTIST
(2020)
245,
48
Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk
GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– The BMJ
(2020)
369,
m2063
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.
AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA
(2020)
117,
7672
Should We Trust Algorithms?
D Spiegelhalter
– Harvard data science review
(2020)
Introducing The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data
D Spiegelhalter
– Numeracy
(2020)
13,
1
Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world
S Dryhurst, CR Schneider, J Kerr, ALJ Freeman, G Recchia, AM van der Bles, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Journal of Risk Research
(2020)
23,
994
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Room

D2.06

Telephone

01223 337945