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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor David Spiegelhalter

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

COVID-19 risk perception: a longitudinal analysis of its predictors and associations with health protective behaviours in the United Kingdom
CR Schneider, S Dryhurst, J Kerr, ALJ Freeman, G Recchia, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Journal of Risk Research
(2021)
24,
294
(doi: 10.1080/13669877.2021.1890637)
What is my covid risk?
S Finnikin, DJ Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2021)
372,
n637
(doi: 10.1136/bmj.n637)
The adverse effects of bisphosphonates in breast cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis
C Jackson, ALJ Freeman, Z Szlamka, DJ Spiegelhalter
– PLoS One
(2021)
16,
e0246441
(doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246441)
Five rules for evidence communication
M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2020)
587,
362
(doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1)
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
371,
m3731
(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3731)
Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
A Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, C Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, D Spiegelhalter
(2020)
2020.10.05.20206961
(doi: 10.1101/2020.10.05.20206961)
Use of "normal" risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19
D Spiegelhalter
– The BMJ
(2020)
370,
m3259
(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m3259)
Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk.
GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
369,
m2063
(doi: 10.1136/bmj.m2063)
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.
AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
(2020)
117,
7672
(doi: 10.1073/pnas.1913678117)
Should We Trust Algorithms?
D Spiegelhalter
– Harvard data science review
(2020)
(doi: 10.1162/99608f92.cb91a35a)
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Email

D.Spiegelhalter@statslab.cam.ac.uk

Room

D2.06

Telephone

01223 337945

Personal homepage

https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/

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