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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor David Spiegelhalter

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

Redevelopment of the Predict: Breast Cancer website and recommendations for developing interfaces to support decision-making.
GD Farmer, M Pearson, WJ Skylark, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Cancer medicine
(2021)
10,
5141
(DOI: 10.1002/cam4.4072)
Factors associated with deaths due to COVID-19 versus other causes: population-based cohort analysis of UK primary care data and linked national death registrations within the OpenSAFELY platform.
K Bhaskaran, S Bacon, SJ Evans, CJ Bates, CT Rentsch, B MacKenna, L Tomlinson, AJ Walker, A Schultze, CE Morton, D Grint, A Mehrkar, RM Eggo, P Inglesby, IJ Douglas, HI McDonald, J Cockburn, EJ Williamson, D Evans, HJ Curtis, WJ Hulme, J Parry, F Hester, S Harper, D Spiegelhalter, L Smeeth, B Goldacre
– The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
(2021)
6,
100109
(DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100109)
How well did experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic?
G Recchia, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter
– PLoS One
(2021)
16,
e0250935
(DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250935)
Communicating personalized risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study.
ALJ Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, CR Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, D Spiegelhalter
– Royal Society Open Science
(2021)
8,
201721
(DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201721)
Sound human, steer clear of jargon, and be prepared.
K McConway, D Spiegelhalter
– Significance
(2021)
18,
32
(DOI: 10.1111/1740-9713.01508)
COVID-19 risk perception: A longitudinal analysis of its predictors and associations with health protective behaviours in the United Kingdom
CR Schneider, S Dryhurst, J Kerr, ALJ Freeman, G Recchia, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Journal of Risk Research
(2021)
24,
294
(DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2021.1890637)
What is my covid risk?
S Finnikin, DJ Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2021)
372,
n637
(DOI: 10.1136/bmj.n637)
The adverse effects of bisphosphonates in breast cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis
C Jackson, ALJ Freeman, Z Szlamka, DJ Spiegelhalter
– PloS one
(2021)
16,
e0246441
(DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246441)
Five rules for evidence communication
M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2020)
587,
362
(DOI: 10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1)
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– The BMJ
(2020)
371,
m3731
(DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m3731)
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Email

D.Spiegelhalter@statslab.cam.ac.uk

Room

D2.06

Telephone

01223 337945

    Study at Cambridge

    About the University

    Research at Cambridge