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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

The Bugs Book
D Lunn, C Jackson, DJ Spiegelhalter, N Best, A Thomas
(2012)
Incorporation of uncertainty in health economic modelling studies
A O'Hagan, C McCabe, R Akehurst, A Brennan, A Briggs, K Claxton, E Fenwick, D Fryback, M Sculpher, D Spiegelhalter, A Willan
– PharmacoEconomics
(2012)
23,
529
Incorporation of Uncertainty in Health Economic Modelling Studies
M Nuijten
– Pharmacoeconomics
(2012)
23,
851
The authors’ reply
A O’Hagan, C McCabe, R Akehurst, A Brennan, A Briggs, K Claxton, E Fenwick, D Fryback, M Sculpher, D Spiegelhalter, A Willan
– PharmacoEconomics
(2012)
23,
853
Blood cyclosporin concentrations and the short-term risk of lung rejection following heart-lung transplantation.
NG Best, AK Trull, KK Tan, KL Hue, DJ Spiegelhalter, SM Gore, J Wallwork
– Br J Clin Pharmacol
(2012)
34,
513
Simple and Multistate Survival Curves: Can People Learn to Use Them?
T Rakow, RJ Wright, C Bull, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Medical Decision Making
(2012)
32,
792
Empirical evaluation of prior beliefs about frequencies: Methodology and a case study in congenital heart disease
DJ Spiegelhalter, NL Harris, K Bull, RCG Franklin
– Journal of the American Statistical Association
(2012)
89,
435
Routine Antenatal Anti-D Prophylaxis in Women Who Are Rh(D) Negative: Meta-Analyses Adjusted for Differences in Study Design and Quality
RM Turner, M Lloyd-Jones, DOC Anumba, GCS Smith, DJ Spiegelhalter, H Squires, JW Stevens, MJ Sweeting, SJ Urbaniak, R Webster, SG Thompson
– PLoS One
(2012)
7,
e30711
Improved probabilistic prediction of healthcare performance indicators using bidirectional smoothing models
HE Jones, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)
(2012)
175,
729
Handling uncertainty in housing stock models
AT Booth, R Choudhary, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Building and Environment
(2012)
48,
35
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Research Groups

Centre for Mathematical Imaging in Healthcare
DPMMS retired
Statistical Laboratory