skip to content

Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

Embracing Bayesian Methods in Clinical Trials
JJ Lee, FE Harrell, LM LaVange, DJ Spiegelhalter
– JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association
(2026)
335,
David Spiegelhalter's contribution to the Discussion of 'Some statistical aspects of the COVID-19 response' by Wood et al.
D Spiegelhalter
– Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)
(2025)
189,
107
Reading the signals: Developing a maternity outcome signal system (MOSS) to improve critical outcomes at term
E Murdoch, B Kirkup, G Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– BJOG-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY
(2025)
132,
109
Does probability exist?
D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2024)
636,
560
How to maintain trustworthiness when doctors act as policy advocates
S Walsh, D Taylor-Robinson, D Spiegelhalter, C Brayne
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2024)
386,
e079929
Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry
S Hayes, R McCabe, D De Angelis, CA Donnelly, SJW Evans, GF Medley, DJ Spiegelhalter, SM Bird
– Royal Society Open Science
(2024)
11,
231722
Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry
S Hayes, R McCabe, D De Angelis, CA Donnelly, SJ Evans, GF Medley, DJ Spiegelhalter, SM Bird
(2023)
How to communicate uncertainty?
A Freeman, S Dryhurst, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Octopus
(2023)
wq3r-jx34
The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context
CR Schneider, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Judgment and Decision Making
(2023)
17,
849
Discussion of Presidential Address: Statistics in Times of Increasing Uncertainty by Sylvia Richardson
D Spiegelhalter
– Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
(2022)
185,
1499
  • 1 of 44
  • >

Research Groups

Centre for Mathematical Imaging in Healthcare
DPMMS retired
Statistical Laboratory