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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– The BMJ
(2020)
371,
m3731
Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
A Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, C Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, D Spiegelhalter
(2020)
Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19
D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
370,
m3259
No more damned lies ...
D Spiegelhalter
– NEW SCIENTIST
(2020)
245,
48
Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk.
GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
369,
m2063
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.
AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA
(2020)
117,
7672
Should We Trust Algorithms?
D Spiegelhalter
– 2.1
(2020)
Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world
S Dryhurst, CR Schneider, J Kerr, ALJ Freeman, G Recchia, AM van der Bles, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Journal of Risk Research
(2020)
1
Hormone replacement therapy and the risk of breast cancer: How much should women worry about it?
M Climént-Palmer, D Spiegelhalter
– Post Reprod Health
(2019)
25,
175
The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making
EM Stephens, DJ Spiegelhalter, K Mylne, M Harrison
– Geoscience Communication
(2019)
2,
101
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Room

D2.06

Telephone

01223 337945