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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

David Spiegelhalter

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context
CR Schneider, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Judgment and Decision Making
(2023)
17,
849
(DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008962)
Discussion of Presidential address: Statistics in times of increasing uncertainty by Sylvia Richardson
D Spiegelhalter
– Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
(2022)
185,
1499
(DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12970)
The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: two randomised controlled trials
CR Schneider, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– PLoS ONE
(2021)
16,
e0259048
(DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259048)
Expert elicitation on the relative importance of possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations
AL Freeman, S Parker, C Noakes, S Fitzgerald, A Smyth, R Macbeth, D Spiegelhalter, H Rutter
– BMJ Open
(2021)
11,
e050869
(DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050869)
Redevelopment of the Predict: Breast Cancer website and recommendations for developing interfaces to support decision-making
GD Farmer, M Pearson, WJ Skylark, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Cancer medicine
(2021)
10,
5141
(DOI: 10.1002/cam4.4072)
Factors associated with deaths due to COVID-19 versus other causes: population-based cohort analysis of UK primary care data and linked national death registrations within the OpenSAFELY platform
K Bhaskaran, S Bacon, SJ Evans, CJ Bates, CT Rentsch, B MacKenna, L Tomlinson, AJ Walker, A Schultze, CE Morton, D Grint, A Mehrkar, RM Eggo, P Inglesby, IJ Douglas, HI McDonald, J Cockburn, EJ Williamson, D Evans, HJ Curtis, WJ Hulme, J Parry, F Hester, S Harper, D Spiegelhalter, L Smeeth, B Goldacre
– Lancet Reg Health Eur
(2021)
6,
100109
(DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100109)
How well did experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic?
G Recchia, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter
– PLoS One
(2021)
16,
e0250935
(DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250935)
Communicating personalized risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
ALJ Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, CR Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, D Spiegelhalter
– Royal Society Open Science
(2021)
8,
201721
(DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201721)
The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: two randomised controlled trials
C Schneider, A Freeman, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
(2021)
2021.04.07.21255010
(DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.07.21255010)
Sound human, steer clear of jargon, and be prepared.
K McConway, D Spiegelhalter
– Signif (Oxf)
(2021)
18,
32
(DOI: 10.1111/1740-9713.01508)
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Email

D.Spiegelhalter@statslab.cam.ac.uk

Room

D2.06

Telephone

01223 337945

Personal homepage

https://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~david/

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