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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor David Spiegelhalter

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)
D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2024)
636,
560
(doi: 10.1038/d41586-024-04096-5)
How to maintain trustworthiness when doctors act as policy advocates.
S Walsh, D Taylor-Robinson, D Spiegelhalter, C Brayne
– The BMJ
(2024)
386,
e079929
(doi: 10.1136/bmj-2024-079929)
Modelling hepatitis C infection acquired from blood transfusions in the UK between 1970 and 1991 for the Infected Blood Inquiry
S Hayes, R McCabe, D De Angelis, CA Donnelly, SJW Evans, GF Medley, DJ Spiegelhalter, SM Bird
– R Soc Open Sci
(2024)
11,
231722
(doi: 10.1098/rsos.231722)
The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context
CR Schneider, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Judgment and Decision Making
(2023)
17,
849
(doi: 10.1017/s1930297500008962)
Discussion of Presidential address: Statistics in times of increasing uncertainty by Sylvia Richardson
D Spiegelhalter
– Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
(2022)
185,
1499
(doi: 10.1111/rssa.12970)
The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: Two randomised controlled trials.
CR Schneider, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– PLoS One
(2021)
16,
e0259048
(doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259048)
Expert elicitation on the relative importance of possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations
AL Freeman, S Parker, C Noakes, S Fitzgerald, A Smyth, R Macbeth, D Spiegelhalter, H Rutter
– BMJ open
(2021)
11,
e050869
(doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050869)
Redevelopment of the Predict: Breast Cancer website and recommendations for developing interfaces to support decision-making.
GD Farmer, M Pearson, WJ Skylark, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Cancer Medicine
(2021)
10,
5141
(doi: 10.1002/cam4.4072)
Factors associated with deaths due to COVID-19 versus other causes: population-based cohort analysis of UK primary care data and linked national death registrations within the OpenSAFELY platform.
K Bhaskaran, S Bacon, SJ Evans, CJ Bates, CT Rentsch, B MacKenna, L Tomlinson, AJ Walker, A Schultze, CE Morton, D Grint, A Mehrkar, RM Eggo, P Inglesby, IJ Douglas, HI McDonald, J Cockburn, EJ Williamson, D Evans, HJ Curtis, WJ Hulme, J Parry, F Hester, S Harper, D Spiegelhalter, L Smeeth, B Goldacre
– Lancet Reg Health Eur
(2021)
6,
100109
(doi: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100109)
How well did experts and laypeople forecast the size of the COVID-19 pandemic?
G Recchia, ALJ Freeman, D Spiegelhalter
– PLoS One
(2021)
16,
e0250935
(doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250935)
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Email

D.Spiegelhalter@statslab.cam.ac.uk

Room

D2.06

Telephone

01223 337945

Personal homepage

https://www.dpmms.cam.ac.uk/~ds28/

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