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Department of Pure Mathematics and Mathematical Statistics

Professor David Spiegelhalter

Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk

Research Interests: Public understanding of uncertainty and risk, Bayesian methods, biostatistics, performance assessment

Examples sheets and lecture notes can be found on my teaching page.

Publications

The adverse effects of bisphosphonates in breast cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis
C Jackson, ALJ Freeman, Z Szlamka, DJ Spiegelhalter
– PLoS One
(2021)
16,
e0246441
(DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246441)
Five rules for evidence communication
M Blastland, ALJ Freeman, S van der Linden, TM Marteau, D Spiegelhalter
– Nature
(2020)
587,
362
(DOI: 10.1038/d41586-020-03189-1)
Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study.
AK Clift, CAC Coupland, RH Keogh, K Diaz-Ordaz, E Williamson, EM Harrison, A Hayward, H Hemingway, P Horby, N Mehta, J Benger, K Khunti, D Spiegelhalter, A Sheikh, J Valabhji, RA Lyons, J Robson, MG Semple, F Kee, P Johnson, S Jebb, T Williams, J Hippisley-Cox
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
371,
m3731
(DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m3731)
Communicating personalised risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study
A Freeman, J Kerr, G Recchia, C Schneider, ACE Lawrence, L Finikarides, G Luoni, S Dryhurst, D Spiegelhalter
(2020)
(DOI: 10.1101/2020.10.05.20206961)
Use of "normal" risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19.
D Spiegelhalter
– BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
(2020)
370,
m3259
(DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m3259)
No more damned lies ...
D Spiegelhalter
– NEW SCIENTIST
(2020)
245,
48
Shielding from covid-19 should be stratified by risk
GD Smith, D Spiegelhalter
– The BMJ
(2020)
369,
m2063
(DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m2063)
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
AM van der Bles, S van der Linden, ALJ Freeman, DJ Spiegelhalter
– Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA
(2020)
117,
7672
(DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1913678117)
Should We Trust Algorithms?
D Spiegelhalter
– Harvard Data Science Review
(2020)
(DOI: 10.1162/99608f92.cb91a35a)
Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world
S Dryhurst, CR Schneider, J Kerr, ALJ Freeman, G Recchia, AM van der Bles, D Spiegelhalter, S van der Linden
– Journal of Risk Research
(2020)
23,
1
(DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2020.1758193)
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Email

D.Spiegelhalter@statslab.cam.ac.uk

Room

D2.06

Telephone

01223 337945

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