Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases


We analyzed 46 2019-nCoV cases confirmed in Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau who traveled from Wuhan before its lockdown. The known travel history allows us to narrow down when the cases were first infected. Our estimate of the epidemic growth is much larger than previous estimates, indicating the epidemic could have been spreading much faster than initial estimates.

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